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2009, a Year in Review

The year 2009 was an important one for a lot of reasons: America saw its first African-American President, the global economy seemed to take a step towards the right direction and we lost the undisputed King of Pop. On Infinite Loop, 2009 was an important year to say the least: market share rose, products were introduced, an executive returned and the competition, in two key markets, took steps forward. Today, we examine the positives and the negatives and conclude with a couple key topics that will likely shape the success of Apple Inc.

For the most part, Apple Inc. is seen much like its products – smooth and without flaws. To say that 2009 was “without flaws” would be a lie. No matter what way you shape certain events – there is no way to avoid the obvious negatives. There were a lot of “bumps in the road” for Cupertino in 2009, but there are three that got our attention:

1. Snow Leopard – Most analyst believe that Snow Leopard was not a success. Even today a large portion of users refuse to switch because of the bugs. Despite an extremely low upgrade price of $29 – many Mac users were disappointed with the lack of UI changes and the mixed performance. Snow Leopard itself had problems, but they were magnified by the perceived success of Windows 7. While many agree that Snow Leopard is better then Windows 7 – the launch of Windows 7 and the track that it returned Microsoft to seems to have garnered it the award for better launch. Neither was without error, but the expectations for Apple and Microsoft are very different. While Microsoft exceeded expectations, most believe Cupertino fell short.

2. iMac Launch – Nowhere was the “without flaws” more contradicted then the fall launch of the iMac. Not only did it take a month to get some versions of the 27″ iMac shipping to customers, but when units began to arrival they were DOA. All launches seem to have their issues, but the Apple faithful definitely seemed in shock with what seemed to be a quality control issue with the flagship iMac. Screens were arriving cracked, with tint and in otherwise non-operable condition. On top of that it took resellers more then six weeks to receive their versions of the unit. Eventually Apple seemed to have fixed the problems, but only after public embarrassment and mass replacement of units.

3. Steve Jobs’ Health – This will be covered further on in the article, but Jobs’ absence for the first six months of the year, while having only minute importance in 2009, is by far the most concerning event of 2009. The man that is the company had to receive a liver transplant and the health of the aging CEO became the talk of Apple for the first half of the year. Even when he returned, he did not look fully health only leading to further concerns of what the future holds.

Despite the concerns listed above, 2009 was a success. That’s about all we need to say – here are three reasons we think that the statement is fairly obvious:
1. Success in Harsh Economic Times – Well duh… Each quarter the numbers improved across the board: market share, computers, iPhones and profit culminating with a $1.67 billion profit in Q4 along with numerous other company highs. Even in some of the worst of economic times and the absence of perhaps the most recognizable CEO in the world Apple Inc. continued the trends of company records.

2. Stock Price – Following the Q4 financial announcement, Apple’s stock (AAPL) hit the $200 mark for the first time in company history. More recently on the heels of the rumored “iTablet” the stock has continued to rise reaching just shy of the $210 mark. The $200 mark is notable for two reasons. First, Apple has never broke the $200 barrier, reaching $199.83 in later December of 2007 – but failing to break the barrier. Secondly, just a year ago the stock was floating around $70 equating to a hefty profit in just 12 months.

3. Success of the App Store – The App Store celebrated its one year birthday in mid-2009 and the success cannot be overlooked. With the rise of the Android platform and other smartphones, the continued dominance of the iPhone is seen largely because of the App Store and its 100,000 apps. Developers continued to sell in record numbers, raking in large amounts of profits for both the developers and Apple.

We feel fairly confident in concluding 2009 to be a success, but as the decade closes it shouldn’t be without concern. We feel that there are five key areas that will shape the future of Apple Inc. and the culture that we are a part of:
1. The Health of Jobs – Okay, so we lied. We think that there is one super important key and then four that are important. Steve Jobs is Apple. Despite the belief (and reality) that Jobs has put together a board that is there to execute his interests, there is no denying the plummeting of AAPL that would occur on the announcement that Jobs was leaving for whatever reason. His health is not perfect and must be seen as a concern, no matter how little it seems of importance because the truth is: it is.

2. Android & the Future of the iPhone – While we don’t think Verizon will get the iPhone anytime soon, they do have the Droid and it seems to be of some competition to the iPhone. The 3GS seemed to not impress some and AT&T’s network is not anywhere near perfect. The iPhone is clearly the single most important device that Apple sells and its future, while looking bright, is vital to the continued success of the company.

3. Tablet – Print media may have more riding on Apple’s iSlate then Cupertino does, but the device is important. It serves as the next platform for diversification and another way to incorporate the App Store or OS X. Our thoughts is that we are going to see a Tablet and fairly soon and most people expect Apple to do what it does best: be revolutionary.

4. Future Launches – The launch of the iMac was scary. Apple has a reputation for being consistent and stubborn and a return to the quality that users expect is important. While we don’t believe that the next launch of computers will be like the iMac’s problems, if these problems persist, Cupertino’s image will take a hit – something that Mr. Jobs will not be happy about.

5. Windows 7 – It’s not really Windows 7, but the next rendition. Windows 7 shows that Microsoft is at least headed back in the right direction and that has to be viewed as a mild concern for the continued success and growth of Apple. While Apple is not going to suddenly overtake Windows in the next decade – the continued success in the home and educational markets could be in jeopardy if Windows takes large strides while Apple makes moderate changes.


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